Risk-based decision analysis in support of precautionary policies

A decision-analytic model for avoiding a risky activity is presented. The model considers the benefit and cost of avoiding the activity, the probability that the activity is unsafe, and scientific tests or studies that could be conducted to revise the probability that the activity is unsafe. For a single decision maker, thresholds are identified for his or her current subjective probability that the activity is unsafe. These thresholds indicate whether the preferred course of action is avoiding the activity without further study, engaging in the activity without further study, or conducting a test or research programme to obtain additional information and following the result. When these thresholds are low, precautionary action is more likely to be warranted. When there are multiple stakeholders, differences in their perceptions of the benefit and cost of avoidance and differences in their perceptions of the accuracy of the additional information provided by the test or research programme combine to create differences in their decision thresholds. Thus, the model allows for the rational expression of differences among parties in a way that highlights disagreements and possible paths to conflict resolution. The model is illustrated with an application to phytosanitary standards in international trade and examined in terms of recent empirical research on lay perceptions of risks, benefits, and trust. Further research is suggested to improve the elicitation of model components, as a way of fostering the legitimate application of risk-based decision analysis in precautionary policy making.     

Cost effectiveness of rosuvastatin in patients at risk of cardiovascular disease based on findings from the JUPITER trial

Abstract

Objective:

This study assessed the long-term cost effectiveness of rosuvastatin therapy compared with placebo in reducing the incidence of major cardiovascular (CVD) events and mortality.

Methods:

A probabilistic Monte Carlo simulation model estimated long-term cost effectiveness of rosuvastatin therapy (20?mg daily) for the prevention of CVD mortality and morbidity. The model included three stages: (1) CVD prevention simulating the 4 years of the JUPITER trial, (2) initial CVD prevention beyond the trial, and (3) subsequent CVD event prevention. A US payer perspective was assessed reflecting direct medical costs, and up to a lifetime horizon. Sensitivity analyses tested the robustness of the model estimates.

Results:

For a hypothetical cohort of 100,000 patients at moderate and high risk of CVD events based on Framingham risk of ≥10%, estimated quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained with rosuvastatin therapy compared with placebo was 33,480 over a lifetime horizon, and 25,380 and 9916 over 20-year and 10-year horizons, respectively. Approximately 12,073 events were avoided over the lifetime; 6,146 non-fatal MIs, 2905 non-fatal strokes, and 4030 CVD deaths avoided. Estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for cost per QALY was $7062 (lifetime), $10,743 (20-year horizon), and $44,466 (10-year horizon). For a hypothetical cohort similar to the overall JUPITER population, the cost per QALY ICER was $11,025 for the lifetime and $60,112 for a 10-year horizon.

Limitations:

The cost-effectiveness comparison of rosuvastatin 20?mg was against no active treatment (as opposed to an alternative statin) due to lack of comparative cardiovascular morbidity and mortality risk reduction data for other statins in a population similar to the JUPITER trial population. The analysis was conducted from the payer perspective and lack of inclusion of indirect costs limit interpretability of results from a societal perspective.

Conclusions:

Treatment with rosuvastatin 20?mg daily, is a cost-effective treatment alternative to no treatment in patients at a higher risk (Framingham risk ≥10%) of CVD.     

重庆直辖前后农村居民消费与收入纵向对比实证分析

本文运用Keynesian的绝对收入假设消费函数模型，充分考虑重庆直辖前后的差异，将消费与收入的数据分为直辖前和直辖后两个阶段分别进行协整检验并建立误差修正模型，然后对两个阶段所表现出的显著差异进行纵向对比分析，最后提出当前形势下刺激农村居民消费扩大的政策建议。     

大学会计类专业税务实践教学改革探析

会计工作要求从业人员具有丰富的税务知识和很强的实践能力。当前,许多高校的税务实践教学是较为薄弱的环节,高校会计类专业的实践教学不能适应社会需求。文章分析了当前会计专业税务实践教学的现状,提出了相应的教学改革建议。     

对嘉兴市典当行业发展状况的调查分析

本文通过对嘉兴市典当行业现状的调研分析,揭示了典当行业在发展中存在的主要风险,并提出了对策建议。     

Perceived risk and risk-reduction strategies in Internet shopping

This article focuses on the appearance of new kinds of risk and new risk-relievers in electronic buying situations. A qualitative study was conducted in order to identify risk dimensions and risk-relievers. The links between risk and risk-relievers were taken into account. A quantitative survey was also conducted in order to measure perceived risk level and risk-reliever utility, and to present a cluster analysis of consumer riskreduction behaviour based on risk-reliever utility scores.     

'More is not necessarily better': the relationship between the quantity and quality of training efforts

International comparisons indicate that, on average, Belgian companies spend less on training than their French, German and Dutch counterparts. Encouraging companies to commit to training has consequently been an important policy goal over the last few years. One notable aspect of the policy to encourage training efforts by companies is that the effort is always represented in terms of the resources invested (input), not in terms of the learning achieved (output) or the quality of training programmes (throughput). Government policy is aimed at increasing the level of investment in company training. One of the questions we wish to investigate is whether this input-oriented approach to the training issue is actually effective. Whether companies will succeed in raising human capital to ever-increasing levels may depend not only (and maybe not even chiefly) on the extent of financial investment in training. The investment level does not necessarily determine the quality of the training processes developed by companies. Therefore, this paper focuses on the following research questions: (1) to what extent do companies monitor the systematic development of sufficiently effective training processes? In other words, is qualitative under-investment an issue, alongside financial under-investment? (2) Is the level of financial investment in company training correlated to the quality of training processes? The empirical data confirm that a kind of 'qualitative' under-investment can be reported and that the relationship between the level of investment in training and the quality of the training programmes is weak.     

基于DEA的第三方物流企业绩效评价

在对第三方物流企业财务、配送及仓储研究的基础上,建立了评价指标体系,设计了第三方物流企业绩效非均一综合集成的DEA评价模型,并通过算例验证了模型的客观合理性。该方法模型为地方政府的交通运输部门和第三方物流企业本身了解企业自身的状况,并制定相关改善企业管理的措施提供了定量支持。     

A Case Study on Analysis of the Stylistic Features of News Coverage

With the guidance of discourse analysis, this paper attempts to explore the stylistic features of news coverage with concrete example from angles of global and local analysis, aiming at promoting people's knowledge of news coverage style and furthering understanding of it.     

对新疆青年科技工作者问卷调查的思考

45岁以下的青年科技工作者是目前新疆科技战线上的骨干和中坚力量，他们的工作生活状况、职业发展前景、心理感受与满意度在很大程度上影响着新疆科技人才队伍建设和科技事业的未来发展。本文通过对问卷调查中涉及青年科技工作者工作状况的九个方面的问题进行汇总分析，结合调查访谈获得的第一手资料，提出了四点建议，以供政府制定科技政策时参考。